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VC Outlook

The National Venture Capital Association released the 2008 Predictions Survey recently (powerpoint slides here).

There were some interesting tidbits in here:

  • VCs think that cleantech will be the fastest growing sector in 2008 for new investment, but will also be the most overpriced.
  • Semiconductors and software will be undervalued in 2008 (good fodder for my fellow contrarians).
  • VCs are optimistic about their returns in the future (or at least think that they will be better than they have been recently).  Given the amount of capital out there, I think that this is overoptimism.
  • However, returns in the past 12 months are ahead of historical 10 and 20 year returns.
  • Early stage venture capital, historically the strongest investment category, still has not recovered from the bursting of the bubble.
  • VCs think that Hillary Clinton will be elected President!


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